Wolff: The inflated world of Internet traffic

A search on the phrase "100 million unique visitors" turns up an array of sites that includes many you have probably never heard of. That means there are lots of media outlets with audiences 100 times the size of an average night at Fox News, or five or six times the size of an American television network at its peak, that pass under the radar.

We are, as all media people will tell you, in a moment of acute media fragmentation — yet BuzzFeed has an audience larger than the Super Bowl's.

Something screwy here?

One hundred million a month as the new normal is so recent a phenomenon that, as often happens in Internet time, the head scratching far lags the evident preposterousness. But in the past week, there have been two instances of serious skepticism that perhaps begin to suggest the traffic bubble is in trouble.

In the first, The Wall Street Journal declared that 36% of Internet traffic might be phony — that more than a third of the Internet's users weren't actually people. The entire medium was in essence maintained by click fraud. Bots and aggregators based in sketchy nations with technology prowess supplied as much traffic to many sites as Google.

The second article was in New York magazine. It was about Upworthy, a site which in some moral inversion repackages virtuous liberal news and, using the new para-science of "click-testing," effectively lures Facebook users with tabloid-like headlines.

On closer look, the Journal's numbers were probably no more authoritative than any other Internet numbers. But they at least respected an underlying reality: The numbers can't possibly be true — or at least a hundred million uniques is in no way comparable to an audience of 100 million.

The New York magazine article suggested not just the ever-debased audience metrics but how much the Internet-audience business is dependent on a boiler room operation reminiscent of nothing so much as the old sweepstakes business.

Both articles made an implicit further poi! nt: The Internet, once extolled as the first truly measurable medium, wherein publishers and marketers would be able to precisely track usage and behavior, was not measurable at all — far less than even loosey-goosey conventional media.

Indeed, none of those phony or improbable traffic numbers comes as a surprise to advertisers, who have systematically bid down the price of Internet audiences.

The value of the return on this traffic has not remotely kept up with either the bragging rights of 100 million-plus sites or the expectation that ultimate value will somehow, against all logic, approximate the worth of a Super Bowl-size audience, that such sites will, in a yet to be imagined way, figure out how to effectively monetize their super-size followings.

Reality can't be too far behind. Either it is all a monster fraud, a mirage, or it doesn't matter. When an audience of 100 million becomes ho-hum and commonplace, this suggests that an audience is not so much a loyal following but a commodity, one whose value declines as various competitors produce it more efficiently and whose value exists solely in finding the ever-smaller arbitrage between asked and bid.

Indeed, at the center of the new traffic matrix and the million unique visitor paradigm are several traffic aggregators, among them Outbrain, which calls itself a "content discovery platform" and serves 15 billion pages.

Outbrain pays a large number of sites to carry its widgets (those small blocks of random stories you might find on a page). Sites agree to do this because Outbrain pays $1.50 to $3.50 per thousand views — higher than many advertisers pay. In turn, other sites contract with Outbrain to have their content displayed in these widgets with a link back to the site.

For this, a content provider might pay as little as 1.5 cents per click and as much as 7 cents, depending on the level of exposure you want and amount of traffic you seek. (Though Outbrain's numbers are mostly shrouded in mystery, I'm bas! ing these! examples on actual Outbrain deals I know about.) If you are willing to pay 3 cents a click, that might reliably earn you a million visits a month — 7 cents might get you tens of millions or more. The only problem is that it is almost impossible to sell a click for more than that — though you might do less poorly if you dump a user into multiple pageview slideshows or other force-you-to-keep-clicking formats.

You see the problem here: Even using legitimate practices, you produce at best a drive-by audience, and one that costs more to get than you can make on it. Nevertheless, you get to have 100 million unique visitors, which means you are … a big kahuna (though less big the more the numbers go up).

This does not mean that sites with large numbers do not have an actual loyal audience, just that the real is a fraction of the unreal. A rule of thumb is that for every 1 million uniques a month, a site might make $500,000 to $1 million a year. In old-fashioned media, the rule of thumb is that for every 100,000 of circulation, you'd earn $5 million to $10 million a year.

Perhaps reality can be extrapolated. If a site such as BuzzFeed, claiming in excess of 100 million unique visitors, makes, let's say, $50 million a year, then in more conventional terms, we might conclude its true audience is somewhere from 500,000 to 1 million a month, in other words a small but respectable publishing business. That's not nothing — and the world suddenly becomes a more rational and understandable place.

Comparing Smartphones in 2013

Though making a meaningful smartphone comparison used to involve pitting Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) against Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) in a duopoly, the other players in the market have become increasingly important to understanding the landscape. Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) Windows Phones have gained traction, BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY  ) refuses to go away, and Samsung has carved out its own niche unlike any other. Any meaningful smartphone comparison now includes multiple devices across multiple operating systems, not to mention a look at the markets in which they compete.

Confusing the matter further is the recent release of Facebook (NASDAQ: FB  ) Home, which brings a brand-new market segment to the forefront. Where this development will lead remains to be seen. In the video below, Fool.com contributor Doug Ehrman discusses the most important elements of a smartphone comparison and which names to watch heading into the summer.

There's no doubt that Apple is at the center of technology's largest revolution ever, and that longtime shareholders have been handsomely rewarded with over 1,000% gains. However, there is a debate raging as to whether Apple remains a buy. The Motley Fool's senior technology analyst and managing bureau chief, Eric Bleeker, is prepared to fill you in on both reasons to buy and reasons to sell Apple, and what opportunities are left for the company (and your portfolio) going forward. To get instant access to his latest thinking on Apple, simply click here now.

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Two Reasons Stocks Could Head Higher

TGIF. It had been a painful week for stocks–until today that is, as big gains in GameStop (GME), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) and Newmont Mining (NEM) have helped push the S&P 500 higher.

Why the brighter outlook? Wells Capital Management’s Jim Paulsen offers two  reasons: confidence and emerging markets.

For starters, he believes that confidence will trump rising interest rates. He writes:

Interest rates are starting to rise in this recovery but so is confidence.  Despite concerns this year about higher interest rates, the speed of the Fed’s exit strategy, disappointing weather-impacted economic reports and some old school Cold War rumbles, consumer confidence rose to its highest level in more than six years in March!  If history is any guide, so long as confidence continues improving, the stock market may surprise many by its persistence despite higher yields and Fed tapering.  So far, the primary reason yields are rising and the Fed is considering monetary policy normalization is because “confidence” surrounding the economic recovery is improving.

Indeed, in judging when the stock market may pause, rather than watching the Fed or interest rates, history suggest investors may be better served by staying focused on confidence.

And what about those emerging markets? Well, this week they’ve been rising–a lot. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has gained 5% this week as of 1:56 p.m. today, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down 0.3%. How extreme has the turn in emerging markets been? Consider this chart:

 

The upshot: “If [emerging markets have turned,” Paulsen says, the overall stock market “is likely to get a boost.”

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The S&P 500 has gained 0.3% to 1,855.38, as GameStop has risen 6.9% to $39.90 after falling 4% yesterday following disappointing earnings, while Cognizant Technology Solutions has advanced 5.2% to $50.07 after it was upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley. Newmont Mining is up 4.7% as gold miners rally.

6 ways to improve your credit

With so much riding on your credit score, it pays to check your records on all three credit agencies annually.

NEW YORK (Money Magazine) You probably know that your credit is a big factor in getting a loan, but you may not realize just how much of an impact it can have on all aspects of your financial life. Your credit can influence everything from interest rates and insurance premiums to apartment rentals and even job eligibility.

The good news: You don't have to earn a high income or be flush with cash to have great credit.

"The most important thing you can do is make your payments on time and don't take on too much credit card debt," says John Ulzheimer, the credit expert for CreditSesame.com.

Meanwhile, it doesn't take drastic measures to improve your credit scores over time. Here's what you need to know.

First, understand how it works

Simply put, your credit history reflects your track record for paying back loans, as well as your current debt levels and access to credit. Three different credit agencies -- Equifax, Experian and TransUnion -- collect information pertinent to your credit record and keep it in a credit report. With your permission, lenders, landlords, insurers and employers can access these reports.

These reports are also the basis for your credit score, which is a numerical snapshot of your creditworthiness. The most widely-used credit score is the FICO score, which ranges from 300 to 850. You have three different scores, one associated with each of the three credit agency reports. Borrowers with scores above 750 are generally considered excellent, while scores below 650 are considered poor.

Check your credit reports

With so much riding on your credit history, it behooves you to check all three reports annually. You can do so for free once a year at AnnualCred! itReport..com. At the same time, you'll want to make sure the details in the report are correct and legitimately reflect your borrowing activity; suspicious activity may be a sign of identity theft.

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If you find an error in any of the reports, you'll want to go through the necessary steps to remove it or update it. You should start by contacting the lender or creditor that reported the inaccurate information and asking them to update your account. Depending on the nature and severity of the error, you may also want to contact the credit bureaus directly.

Sure, it's a hassle but, considering what's at stake, also time well spent. "You can improve your credit score considerably just by correcting negative information," said Ulzheimer.

Keep track of your score

Unlike your credit reports, you'll need to pay to see your FICO or other credit scores unless you get it from a lender or other service that pulls your score in the regular course of business.

Given how much is riding on this number, it's worth paying for once a year. You can access one score -- plus an explanation of your score -- for $19.95 at MyFICO.com. Assuming that the information in all three of your credit reports is correct and consistent, one number is sufficient.

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Fair Isaac, the company that calculates FICO scores, uses a complex formula for coming up with this tally. In a nutshell, however, the numbers are based on whether you pay your bills on time, how much of your available credit is outstanding, the types of loans you have and how long you've had them.

Pay your bills on time

The ! single biggest influence on your credit score is whether you've made your loan payments and done so on time, says Anthony Sprauve, FICO's senior consumer credit specialist. "Your payment history is 35% of your score," he says. "It's the biggest slice of the pie."

In fact, according to FICO, 96% of people with excellent credit (scores over 800) pay their bills on time.

Keep in mind that this number only reflects payments as they relate to your credit report, says Ulzheimer. If you consistently pay your utility bills, for example, that won't influence your score.

Likewise, what constitutes a late payment depends on the creditor, says Sprauve. Some may give you a small grace period while others may ding you if you're a day late.

Your best defense: Set up automatic payments for the minimum amounts to make sure you're never tardy.

Keep balances in check

The second biggest factor in your score is credit utilization, which is the percentage of your available revolving credit (i.e. credit cards) that is being used. This accounts for 30% of your score. Consumers with the best credit scores use just 7% of their revolving credit lines, according to FICO, but anything below 30% is generally considered acceptable, says Sprauve.

If your score is low because of high balances, paying these down is one of the fastest ways to improve your score. "You could see improvement in as little as 30 days," says Ulzheimer.

Keep in mind that even if you pay your balance in full every month, your ratio of debt to credit will vary depending on when creditors report to the bureaus. "People assume it's the same as the due date, but that's not necessarily the case," says Sprauve, who recommends making a payment every two weeks if you tend to charge a lot. "Your report will show a smaller balance no matter when the creditor reports," he adds.

Apply for new credit judiciously

There are few reasons for why you don't want to apply f! or too ma! ny loans -- credit cards in particular -- at one time. First of all, the average age of your credit lines counts for 15% of your credit score. The higher your average, the better your score. The average account for consumers with the best credit is 11 years old, versus just six months for consumers with poor credit.

Likewise, new credit inquiries, which account for 10% of your score, can temporarily lower your score. The types of loans you have also influence your score, to the tune of 10% of your score.

Because older loans and higher credit limits can potentially help your score, many experts recommend keeping accounts open even if you don't use them. This strategy makes sense to a point but shouldn't dictate your decision to close an account or keep it open, says Ulzheimer. Many accounts are factored into your average account age for years after they're closed.

Stay away from credit repair scams

If your credit is marred by a short sale, foreclosure or default, solicitations from outfits promising to clean up your credit may sound tempting. After all, these events will stay on your credit report -- and drag down your score -- for at least seven years.

The bad news: There are no legitimate "easy" fixes for wiping the slate clean. There's nothing a so-called credit repair clinic can do that you can't do on your own for free.

The good news: As long as you keep revolving debt in check and pay your bills on time, you'll make steady progress toward improving your score. "You'll be surprised by how much improvement you can see after just 24 months," says Ulzheimer.

Will a Plan to Pay for Google Business Apps Users Disrupt Microsoft Office?

Want to make a fast $15? Recommend Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) business apps suite to a friend and help the search king disrupt Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) Office. Fool contributor Tim Beyers explains the strategy's implications in the following video.

Specifically, the promo calls for paying $15 for every user who signs up for Google business apps, up to the first 100 who've paid for at least 120 days of access. Why the bribe? The problem may not be with the suite so much as what it offers beyond the free versions of Google's productivity software. Tim, an avid user of the search king's free services, says he doesn't yet see a difference worth paying for -- unless you own a business large enough to demand a standardized suite of productivity software.

No doubt ironic given the work-anywhere-and-however-you-want nature of cloud computing. And yet there's evidence that cloud-based productivity suites are catching on. Gartner's latest estimate put Google business apps at 33% to 50% of the market as of 2012.

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Microsoft has taken notice of the threat and last month made it easier for users to navigate to and begin using the free versions of its productivity software at Office.com. An iPad version could arrive as early as next week, adding to Mr. Softy's existing Office 365 apps for iOS and Android.

In that sense, Google is paying to defend an emerging business (i.e., Google business apps) as Microsoft fights to keep its legacy business (i.e., Office). For investors, it's a fight to see who will own the future -- one that's worth watching. Now it's your turn to weigh in. Are you using Google business apps? Why or not? Sound off in the comments section below.

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Tiffany's Shares Move Lower After Its Fourth-Quarter Report

Tiffany & Co.  (NYSE: TIF  ) , the global manufacturer and retailer of fine jewelry and other luxury products, has just released its fourth-quarter report to cap off fiscal 2013. The stock moved lower in the trading session that followed, so let's take a thorough look at the results to determine if we should buy on this weakness or if we should avoid investing in Tiffany for now.

Source: Tiffany's Facebook

The quarterly results
Tiffany released its fourth-quarter report before the market opened on March 21 and the results came in slightly below analysts' estimates; here's a breakdown and a year-over-year comparison:

Metric	Reported	Expected
Earnings Per Share	$1.47	$1.52
Revenue	$1.30 billion	$1.31 billion

Source: Benzinga

Source: Tiffany's Pinterest

Tiffany's earnings per share increased 5% and revenue increased 5.1% year-over-year, as global comparable-store sales grew 6%. Sales were strong in all regions on a constant-exchange-rate basis, with growth of 7% in the Americas, 11% in the Asian Pacific, 8% in Japan, 10% in Europe, and 47% in the 'Other' region, which includes the high-growth United Arab Emirates.

Gross profit rose 7.5% to $785.61 million and the gross margin expanded 140 basis points to 60.5%, which showed that Tiffany did not need to offer large promotions during the holidays to draw in customers. Overall, Tiffany had a strong quarter, regardless of whether it met analysts' expectations or not, and I believe the weakness in its stock will only be temporary. 

Source: Tiffany's Instagram

What will fiscal 2014 hold?
In the report, Tiffany also provided its outlook for fiscal 2014 with a call for the following results:

Earnings per share in the range of $4.05-$4.15 Revenue growth in the high-single-digits Open 13 new stores and close four existing stores Free cash flow of at least $400 million These projections would result in earnings per share growing 8.6%-11.3% from fiscal 2013, below analysts' consensus estimate which called for growth of 14.7%. Analysts had also projected revenue growth of 7.6%, so Tiffany gave guidance in-line with this estimate. If Tiffany can accomplish what it guided for, and I think it can, it would result in another record-setting year for the company and the growth would support a much higher share price. For these reasons, I would buy Tiffany at current levels. 

How was the quarter in comparison with those of competitors?
Michael Kors (NYSE: KORS  ) and Coach (NYSE: COH  ) , two of Tiffany's largest competitors, have also recently reported their quarterly results. Michael Kors released its third-quarter report for fiscal 2014 on Feb. 4 and Coach released its second-quarter report for fiscal 2014 on Jan. 22; let's see how Tiffany stacked up versus these two luxury giants:

Metric	Tiffany	Michael Kors	Coach
Earnings Per Share	$1.47	$1.11	$1.06
EPS Growth	5%	73.4%	(13.8%)
Revenue	$1.30 billion	$1.01 billion	$1.42 billion
Revenue Growth	5.1%	59%	(5.3%)

Source: Company Earnings Reports

Source: Michael Kors' Instagram

Michael Kors reported an absolute blowout quarter, driven by a strong 27.8% increase in comparable-store sales. The company saw its gross profit rise 61.6% to $619.5 million and its gross margin expanded 100 basis points to 61.2%.

Coach, on the other hand, reported a dismal quarter and it was held back by a 13.6% decrease in North American comparable-store sales. Its gross profit fell 9.4% to $982.7 million and its gross margin took a big hit, declining 300 basis points to 69.2%. It is clear that the promotional retail environment of the holiday season proved no match for Michael Kors and Tiffany, but Coach had a very difficult time.

In summary, Tiffany and Michael Kors represent good investment opportunities today, but avoid Coach until it can get back to showing year-over-year growth. 

The Foolish bottom line
Tiffany's quarterly results and earnings expectations for fiscal 2014 may have missed expectations, but I believe the weakness in its stock presents a buying opportunity. The company appears well-positioned to continue on its path of growth and this would support a rise in its share price. Foolish investors should strongly consider initiating positions on any further weakness and holding on to them for several years.

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Nike Inc (NKE) Q3 Earnings Preview: Lacing Up For Anther Bullish Surprise

Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) plans to release its third quarter fiscal 2014 financial results on Thursday, March 20, 2014, at approximately 1:15 p.m. PT, following the close of regular stock market trading hours. Following the news release, NIKE management will host a conference call beginning at 2:00 p.m. PT to review results.

Wall Street anticipates that the athletic apparel maker will earn $0.72 per share for the quarter, which is $0.01 less than last year's profit of $0.73 per share. iStock expects NKE  to beat Wall Street's consensus number. The iEstimate is $0.75, a bullish surprise of $0.03.

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Although earnings are expected to dip ever so slightly, Nike's revenue is expected to rise 8.10%. The consensus sales estimate for Q3 is $6.69 billion, up from last year's $6.19 billion.

Like you don't know, but the Just Do It company is engaged in the design, development and worldwide marketing and selling of footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories and services. NIKE is a seller of athletic footwear and athletic apparel worldwide. The Company focuses its product offerings in seven key categories: Running, Basketball, Football (Soccer), Men's Training, Women's Training, NIKE Sportswear (its sports-inspired products) and Action Sports.

The Dow Jones Index member has run past Wall Street's EPS expectations 10 of the last 12 quarterly checkups. On average, the bullish surprises averaged 7.69% more than forecasted with a range of 1.72% to 14% better than the consensus estimate. Meanwhile, the pair of bearish misses fell short by -14.6% and -3.57%.

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Despite the solid record of positive beats, NKE's earnings-driven price-sensitivity hasn't been as lopsided. In the last three years, seven announcements helped shares find higher ground, gaining anywhere from 1.45% to 8.57% with an average run of 4.74%.

That leaves a handful of stumbles where the stock backpedaled from -0.61% to -10.53%. The typical loss was -3.56% - manageable.

Strength in North America (NA) helped Nike in Q2, but this quarter Europe could add a big boost to the top and bottom lines in Q3.

According to ValueWalk, "We conducted a survey of 185 independent Nike retailers in Europe on their sales trends during Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE)'s FYQ3'14 (ending Feb '14) & upcoming expectations… We expect re-acceleration in W.Europe & stabilization in China to help mitigate potential slowdowns in N.America (cont'd growth, but comping 3yrs of +DD revs) and EM… Based on our survey results, average footwear sales for our respondents increased +3.6% y/y, while athletic apparel grew +2% y/y during FYQ3 (Dec – Feb)… retailers across the 5 countries we surveyed identified Nike as their top-selling brand, followed closely by Adidas AG (ADR)."

ValueWalk also expects China to stabilize. Ah, we aren't so sure about that one.

If North America remains strong, which is in doubt thanks to inclement weather for most of the polar-vortexed country, then the 1-2 Euro-American punch could lead to a bullish revenue surprise.

To get a sense of what to expect from the USA, iStock turned to Google Trends for the keyword "NIKE". The first thing we noticed is search volume intensity (SVI) is at an all-time high right now, which could be a plus for forward guidance.

Getting back to Q3, SVI for "NIKE" is up 12.3%. Add that to improving EU trends and a potentially stable China, and confidence for a bullish top-line surprise jog higher. More revenue than expected should lead to more earnings than anticipated.

We input some numbers into an excel spreadsheet, did some math, and modeled sales of $6.842 billion in sales for Nike's third quarter. Using Wall Street's forecasted net-margin of 9.53%, iStock arrives at EPS of $0.74; a penny below the iEstimate, but still two cents better than the current consensus.

Overall: Better sales, better earnings, and upbeat guidance should mean Nike Inc's (NYSE:NKE) enjoy a nice run following Thursday's profit review. 

FiveThirtyEight focuses on data-driven stories

FiveThirtyEight, the data analysis site founded by statistician-turned-journalist Nate Silver, relaunched Monday under ESPN's ownership, promising stories rooted in statistical analysis, interactive graphics, news applications, podcasts and films.

"One of our roles will be to critique incautious uses of statistics when they arise elsewhere in news coverage," he wrote on the site Monday. "At other times, we'll explore ways that consumers can use data to their advantage and level the playing field against corporations and governments."

REM RIEDER: Nate Silver's next act

Silver came to prominence in 2008 when he compiled and computed local election polls to predict Barack Obama's victory in the general election. The New York Times subsequently struck an agreement with Silver to host his work online, and Silver's updates and similar prediction for President Obama's 2012 re-election drew heavy traffic for the newspaper's website.

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ESPN bought the site in July 2013, seizing ownership of the brand but offering Silver more resources and editorial control to expand its coverage. FiveThirtyEight.com remained dormant until Monday as Silver hired journalists and programmers to overhaul the site to include topics that interest him beyond politics – sports, economics, life, and science.

Perhaps owing to initial hiccups for the site's rollout, several readers complained on Twitter early Monday afternoon that it wasn't loading. "The thinking here is we're 75 or 80 percent ready, but the thing is, if we waited another month, we'd still just be 80 or 85 percent ready," Silver told New York Magazine last week.

In a 3,500-word "manifesto," Silver criticized "conventional" media organizations' "anecdotal and ad-hoc" approach to stories, rather than pursuing more stories that are bas! ed on "rigorous and empirical" evidence. "One of the challenges that FiveThirtyEight faces is figuring out how to make data journalism vivid and accessible to a broad audience without sacrificing rigor and accuracy," he wrote. "We have several strategies for this; understanding which ones will work is going to require some experimentation."

Given its mission of embedding thoroughly processed data in its stories, FiveThirtyEight will rarely break stories or be the first to comment on developing news, he says. "To classify these stories appropriately, we'll have to do a lot of work in the background before we publish them. All of this takes time. That's why we've elected to sacrifice something else as opposed to accuracy or accessibility. The sacrifice is speed."

With a staff of 20, the site will collaborate with ESPN Films and Grantland, a ESPN-backed sports and pop culture commentary site founded by sportswriter Bill Simmons, to produce original documentary films. It will also write software code on Github, a web hosting service for open source projects.

FiveThirtyEight was cross-promoted on ESPN.com Monday, featuring Silver's prediction for the NCAA basketball tournament.

Silver said he chose the site's logo, a fox, because it's an allusion to a phrase attributed to the Greek poet Archilochus: "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing."

Petrobras’ Pasts Mistakes and Current Outlook Facing Years to Come

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR), headquartered in Rio de Janeiro Brazil, was founded in 1953 and remained as a legal oil monopoly for the country until 1997. It is the largest company in the Southern Hemisphere by market capitalization and the largest in Latin America measured by 2011 revenues. The company owns oil refineries, oil tankers, is a major distributor for oil products and a leader in developing technology for deepwater and ultra deepwater oil production.

In 2010, the company conducted the largest share sale in its history, selling over $72.8 billion shares. The stock was sold in the BM&F Bovespa stock exchange market, becoming the fourth largest company in the world by market capitalization.

Though the company has been in decline in the last few years, it has recently launched a plan to reduce costs by $8 billion per year in the next four years. However, this being an election year, it is possible that the government won't want to update domestic prices to international ones, thus causing huge losses for the company.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR Profitability Analysis

Looking at profitability is a very important step in understanding a company. Profitability is –essentially – the reason behind a company's existence, and a key component in deciding whether to invest in or maintain your investment in a company. In this article I will look at Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR (PBR)'s earnings and earnings growth, profit margins, profitability ratios and cash flow. In addition, I will evaluate which institutional investors bought the stock in the recent quarters.

If you go back through the history of the stock market, there is a recurring theme among those stocks which have had some of the strongest price appreciation, and it's related to their earnings growth. If you plot a chart of earnings growth versus a company's stock price there is usually a strong relationship between the two of them. So, the first step when analyzing Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR is evaluating its earnings potential.

The company generated -15% EPS growth last quarter compared to the same quarter in the past year.

I am looking for growth stocks that generate more than 15% quarterly EPS growth. It is essential to evaluate why Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR generated less than that.

Sell-side analysts just upgraded EPS projections for the company, increasing EPS estimates by -46.16% for the current year.

I also look at the three-year annual average EPS growth rate to get a perspective on how the company grew in the recent years. PBR generated -21.69% annualized average EPS growth in the past three years.

I do not like that Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR grew less than 15% per year in the past three years. Fifteen percent is the minimum annual growth level I am looking for when investing in growth stocks. This fact does not prevent me from potentially investing in PBR, but it is certainly a warning sign that cannot be ignored.

A key step in analyzing Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR is studying how sales grew in the recent quarters or years. Why is this important? Well, revenue growth cannot be masked with accounting tricks or via cost-cutting strategies. This metric tells you in simple terms how demanded a company´s products or services are.

The company reported a 16% quarterly revenue growth year over year.

PBR generated strong quarterly growth levels. I am confident on Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR´s continued success in emerging economies.

I find the fact that revenues grew more than earnings per share very encouraging. This is a very important ratio because both sales and earnings must grow at same levels. If a company generates strong EPS growth levels and even stronger revenue growth levels, I tend to feel very bullish about it. Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR generated quarterly EPS growth of -15%, while sales grew by 16%.

It is important to watch beyond quarterly earnings, which are more short-term oriented. It is also crucial to pay attention to how annual sales grew in the past three years. Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR reported an average annual sales growth of 16.19% over the past three years over the minimum of 15% I am looking for in these kind of stocks.

The gross profit margin is a measure of a company's manufacturing and distribution efficiency during the production process. It tells an investor the percentage of revenue/sales left after subtracting the cost of the goods/services sold. Investors tend to pay more for businesses that have higher efficiency ratings, as these should be able to make a decent profit as long as overhead costs are controlled (overhead refers to rent, utilities, etc.).

Reviewing PBR's gross margin over the past five years, an investor can see that the company's gross margin has been decreasing. In fact, the 5-year low for the gross margin was reported at 25.4%. The 5-year high for this ratio was achieved over the past twelve months, when the margin reached 44.5%. However, the TTM gross profit margin of 23.9% is below the five-year average of 36.22%.

A gross margin below the five-year average implies that management has not been efficient in improving this key profitability metric.

Operating Margin = Operating Income / Total Sales

The operating margin is a measure of the proportion of a company's revenue that is left over after paying for variable costs of production, such as wages, raw materials, etc. A healthy operating margin is required for a company to be able to pay for its fixed costs such as interest on debt. If a company's margin is increasing, it is earning more per dollar of sales.

Over the past five years, the operating margin of Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR has been increasing. In 2009, the company reported an operating margin of 21.4%. Over the past twelve months the margin reached 10.6%.

The TTM operating margin of 10.6% is above the five-year average of 8.04%. I am always looking for companies that have improving operating margin trends.

Net Profit Margin = Net Income / Total Sales

A ratio of profitability calculated as net income divided by revenue, or net profits divided by sales. It measures how much out of every dollar of sales a company actually keeps in earnings.

The profit margin is a very useful metric when comparing companies in the same –or similar- industries. A higher profit margin indicates a more profitable company that has better control over its costs compared to its competitors. Profit margin is displayed as a percentage.

Over the past five years, PBR's net profit margin shrank, compared to the five-year average. The TTM net profit margin of 8.55% is below the five-year average of 12.71%. This implies that there has been a decline in the percentage of earnings that the company is able to keep compared to the company's five-year average.

I think it is important to look for stock with current net profit margins above the five year average margin. Basically, almost all my stock market winners were companies with above-average margins.

ROA - Return on Assets = Net Income / Total Assets

ROA is an indicator of how profitable a company is relative to its total assets. ROA gives an idea as to how efficient management is at using its assets to generate earnings. Calculated by dividing a company's net income by its total assets, ROA is displayed as a percentage. Sometimes this is referred to as "return on investment."

The 2012 ROA of Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR 3.68% is below the five-year average of 7.08%. This implies that the management has lessened its ability to use the company's assets to generate earnings over the past five years.

Free Cash Flow = Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditure

A measure of financial performance calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. Free cash flow (FCF) represents the cash that a company is able to generate after laying out the money required to maintain or expand its asset base. Free cash flow is important because it allows a company to pursue opportunities that enhance shareholder value. Without cash, it's tough to develop new products, make acquisitions, pay dividends and reduce debt.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR generated a ratio of cash flow from operations/total sales of (OCFS). The higher the percentage, the more cash available from sales.

If a company is generating a negative cash flow, it shows up as a negative number in the numerator in the cash flow margin equation. This means that even though the company can generate revenue, it is losing money.

I feel encouraged by the fact that Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) and Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio) bought the stock in the past months at an average price of $15.62. This shows that hedge funds have confidence in the stock.

Analyst Outlook

Currently, many analysts have a good outlook for PBR. Analysts at MSN money are predicting that PBR will retrieve EPS of $1.67 for FY 2013 and an EPS of $2.29 for FY 2014. Analysts at Bloomberg estimate (C1F)'s revenue to reach $144.89 billion for FY 2013 and $146.24 billion for FY 2014.

Conclusion

Though Brazilian government owns and will own a controlling portion of the company (by law). And they're upfront about it with shareholders: They often say that they will sometimes pursue their political agenda throughout the company, putting shareholders interests in second place. But, this wouldn't be always a bad thing as long as shareholders keep a close look on the current administration policies.

The recent discovery of gas and, primarily, oil under a salt layer puts the company on top of the world oil market, since it provides an uninterrupted source of oil for the next 10 years. This should be a good sign as long as the government and company's CEO Maria das Gracas Silva Foster come to an arrangement in terms of exploration, exploitation and pricing over this new discovery.

On the good side, the company's new CEO Foster, was honest and upfront about past mistakes and is committed with taking the company up again and lowering production costs. Also, the stock price is near a five-year low of $10.37, which provides an interesting entry point, especially after the new discovery of oil and gas resources.

Top 10 Value Companies To Buy Right Now

Disclosure: Vanina Egea holds no position in any stocks mentioned.

Also check out: David Winters Undervalued Stocks David Winters Top Growth Companies David Winters High Yield stocks, and Stocks that David Winters keeps buying
About the author:anina EgeaA fundamental analyst at Lone Tree Analytics

Visit anina Egea's Website

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10 Best Low Price Stocks To Buy Right Now

10 Best Low Price Stocks To Buy Right Now: Esco Technologies Inc (ESE)

ESCO Technologies Inc. (ESCO), incorporated in August 1990, is a producer of engineered products and systems sold to customers worldwide, primarily for utility, industrial, aerospace and commercial applications. ESCO operates in three segments: Utility Solutions Group (Utility Solutions), RF Shielding and Test (Test) and Filtration/Fluid Flow (Filtration). On July 31, 2010, the Company acquired the capital stock of Crissair, Inc. On September 3, 2010, the Company acquired the capital stock of Xtensible Solutions, Inc. its subsidiaries include Aclara Power-Line Systems Inc. (Aclara PLS), Aclara RF Systems Inc. (Aclara RF), Aclara Software Inc., Doble Engineering Company, Doble Lemke AG, Doble Lemke GmbH, Doble PowerTest Limited, Doble TransiNor AS, Crissair, Inc., PTI Technologies Inc., TekPackaging LLC, VACCO Industries, Beijing Lindgren ElectronMagnetic Technology Co., Ltd., ETS-Lindgren L.P., ETS-Lindgren OY, ETS Lindgren Limited and ETS Lindgren Japan, Inc. In January 2 013, the Company acquired the assets of Metrum Technologies LLC. In June 2013, ESCO Technologies Inc announced that it has acquired Canyon Engineering Products Inc.

UTILITY SOLUTIONS

The Utility Solutions segment accounted for approximately 57% of the Company's total revenue during the fiscal year ended September 30, 2010 (fiscal 2010). Aclara PLS is a manufacturer of two-way power line communication systems for the electric utility industry (the TWACS systems), which are composed of equipment (meter modules and equipment for central stations and substations), software and support services. The TWACS systems provide electric utilities with a communication technology for automatic meter reading, load control, interval data, outage assessment/restoration monitoring, remote service disconnect/connect, time-of-use data for critical peak pr! icing, tamper/theft detection and pre-paid metering. Revenue from the TWACS systems accounted for approximately 2 2% of the Company's total revenue in fiscal 2010. Aclara R! F provides, through its STAR network, wireless radio frequency (RF) data communications systems to gas, water and electric utilities for advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) applications. In fiscal 2010, total revenue received by the Company from PG&E for all sales was 9.2% of the Company's consolidated revenue. Revenue from STAR network products, accounted for approximately 17%, of the Company's total revenue in fiscal 2010.

Aclara Software Inc. provides utilities with software systems for energy and water information, delivering a scalable meter data management system (MDMS), AMI/meter device records and asset management, business applications addressing areas, such as revenue assurance and distribution asset analysis. Aclara's analytics-based software applications are used by over 100 energy organizations worldwide. Doble provides electric utility customers with products and services to achieve the reliability and sustainability of electric power inf rastructure. It combines three elements for customers: diagnostic test instruments, expert consulting and testing services. Revenue from Doble's products and services, accounted for approximately 15%, of the Company's total revenue in fiscal 2010.

TEST

The Test segment accounted for approximately 23% of the Company's total revenue in fiscal 2010. ETS-Lindgren designs and manufactures products to measure and contain magnetic, electromagnetic and acoustic energy. It supplies customers with a range of isolated environments including RF test enclosures, acoustic test enclosures, RF and magnetically shielded rooms, secure communication facilities and broadcast and recording studios. these facilities include shielded doors and windows. ETS-Lindgren also provides the design, program management, installation and integration service! s require! d to complete these types of facilities. ETS-Lindgren also supplies customers with a range of components, inclu ding RF absorptive materials, RF filters, active compensatio! n systems! , antennas, antenna masts, turntables and electric and magnetic probes, RF test cells, measurement software and other test accessories required to perform a variety of tests. ETS-Lindgren also offers a variety of services, including calibration for antennas and field probes, chamber certification, field surveys, customer training and a variety of product tests.

FILTRATION

The Filtration segment accounted for approximately 20%, of the Company's total revenue in fiscal 2010. PTI is a supplier of filtration products serving the commercial aerospace, military aerospace and various industrial markets. The industrial markets include chemical processing, automotive and mobile equipment. Products include filter elements, assemblies, modules, indicators and other related components. VACCO supplies flow control products, valves and filters to the space, defense and commercial industries for use in aircraft, satellite propulsion systems, satellite launch ve hicles and other space transportation systems, such as the Space Shuttle and its successor. VACCO also uses its etched disc technology to produce quiet valves and manifolds for the United States Navy applications. Crissair, Inc. supplies a variety of custom and standard valves and other various components to the aerospace, defense and commercial industries. Platform applications include fixed and rotary wing aircraft, air transport and business jets, and defense systems. TekPackaging LLC produces thermoformed products and packaging materials for medical, retail, food and electronic applications.

The Company competes with Itron, Inc., Silver Spring Networks, Landis+Gyr, Cannon Technologies Inc., Sensus Metering Systems Inc., Trilliant Inc., Elster Electricity, L.L.C., Comverge, Inc., Neptune Technology Group, e-Meter Corporation, Orac! le Corpor! ation, APOGEE Interactive Inc., Opower, Inc., Ecologic Analytics, LLC, SmartSynch, Inc.,Tantalus Systems Corp, OMICRON El ectronics Corp. USA, OMICRON, Megger Group Limited, EM shiel! ding mark! et, TDK RF Solutions Inc., Albatross GmbH, IMEDCO AG, Cuming Corporation, Pall Corporation, Moog, Inc., SoFrance and Clarcor Inc.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Travis Hoium]

  What: Shares of engineered product maker ESCO Technologies (NYSE: ESE  ) dropped 10% today after a disappointing earnings report.

  So what: Net sales dropped 4.4% in the fiscal second quarter to $166.2 million, short of the $170.5 million estimate. Earnings per share after adjusting for non-operating charges were $0.28, still below the $0.34 estimate.  

source from Top Stocks Blog:http://www.topstocksblog.com/10-best-low-price-stocks-to-buy-right-now.html

Mid-Day Movers: Dow Jones Industrials Rise 100 Points; JPMorgan Gains

Stocks turned early morning losses into gains today, as the market continues to digest yesterday’s Fed meeting, and AT&T (T), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), First Solar (FSLR) and Frontier Communications (FTR) gain.

REUTERS

The S&P 500 has gained 0.6% to 1,870.96, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has advanced 116.43 points, or 0.7%, to 116338.

AT&T has gained 3% to $33.94, making it the Dow’s biggest gainer at 12.35 p.m., while Frontier Communications has risen 2.7% to $5.37, making it the S&P 500′s third-biggest gainer, after a Connecticut union asked the Feds to block the sale of AT&T’s assets in that state.  AT&T also announced pre-orders for new Samsung (SSNLF) products, while Frontier Communications announced an expanded partnership with Crius Energy Trust.

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JPMorgan Chase has risen 2.9% to $60.01 as investors bet that it will be a beneficiary of higher interest rates.

First Solar has advanced 4.4% to $72.42, the biggest mover in the S&P 500, after analysts at JPMorgan, Credit Suisse, and Deutsche Bank raised their targets for the stock following yesterday’s investor day.

The Next Big Biotech Mover: Ariad Pharma

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Anyone who has followed me for a long time knows that I have a keen eye for spotting biotech stocks that are setting up technically for monster moves higher.

>>5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

One of my most recent examples is IsoRay (ISR), which I highlighted in Feb. 19's "5 Stocks Poised to Skyrocket Higher" at around 70 cents per share. I mentioned in that piece that shares of ISR had recently formed a major bottoming chart pattern at around 66 cents to 67 cents per share. This stock was starting to bounce off those support levels and was moving within range of triggering a major breakout trade above a key downtrend line. That breakout triggered and ISR is now trading at over $1.50 a share, which represents a monster gain of over 100%.

Another small-cap biotech stock that I liked recently was BG Medicine (BGMD), which I featured in Feb. 24's "5 Biotech Stocks to Trade for Breakouts" at around $1.24 per share. I mentioned in that piece that shares of BGMD had been uptrending, with the stock consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. This stock was starting to move within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That breakout came in spades on Tuesday after shares of BGMD soared over 30% and the stock hit an intraday high of $1.87 a share.

Yet another small-cap biotech stock that I was hot for recently was Skystar Bio Pharmaceuticals (SKBI), which I featured in Feb. 12's "5 Stocks Ready to Explode Higher" at around $4.60 per share. I mentioned in that piece that shares of Skystar Bio Pharmaceuticals had been uptrending strong prior to my piece and this stock was quickly moving within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade triggered, and SKBI recently hit a new 52-week high of $7 a share. That represents a monster move of over 50% from the time I liked the setup.

>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

As you can see, I have a pretty good eye for spotting the big movers in the biotech sector before they take off and explode. The next biotech stock that I believe is setting up for a monster move higher is Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA), an oncology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of medicines for cancer patients.

Ariad Pharmaceuticals ran into some major problems last year when its lead leukemia drug Iclusig was pulled off the market. because it was found to cause severe blood clots and narrowing of blood vessels. The drug has now been returned to the marketplace with a longer warning label that maps out the risks involved with taking the drug. Since the drug has been put back on the market, some rumors have started to make the rounds that Ariad Pharmaceuticals could be a buyout target for Eli Lilly (LLY) or GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). Some of those rumors have suggested that ARIA could fetch as much s $20 a share.

Regardless of the rumors, I like to focus on the charts and right now shares of ARIA are starting to show signs technically that large move higher could be in the cards soon.

>>3 Stocks Rising on Big Volume

If you consult the chart for ARIAD Pharmaceuticals, you'll notice that this stock recently formed a double top chart pattern at $9.22 to $9.13 a share. Following that top, shares of ARIA sold off and pulled back and briefly traded below its 50-day moving average. That trip below its 50-day didn't last long and shares of ARIA are now starting to spike higher and begin to move within range of triggering a major breakout trade.

What's important for traders to understand now from a technical standpoint is that ARIA have been trending range-bound for the last two months and change, with shares moving between $6 on the downside and $9.83 on the upside. A breakout with high volume above the upper end of its recent range should be the technical magic that sends shares of ARIA skyrocketing higher.

>>4 Stocks Under $10 to Trade for Breakouts

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Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ARIA as long as it's trending above some key near-term support levels at $7.35 to $6.70 a share and then once it breaks out above those key overhead resistance levels at $9.13 to $9.22 a share and then above $9.83 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 26.5 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then shares of ARIA will set up to re-fill some of its previous gap-down-day zone from last October near $19 a share. If ARIA gets into that gap with volume, then this stock could easily hit $13 to $16 a share.

One final technical note that I would like to point out with ARIA is that the stock has been making higher lows for the last three months for most of its pullbacks, besides the recent violation of $8.22 support. Even when ARIA hit $7.35 a share, that still formed a higher low on a longer-term timeframe. That shows that traders want this stock when it sells off, and now we just need to see confirmation of a high-volume breakout to give ARIA a chance to rip sharply higher. Keep this name on your trading radar because that move could be coming very soon.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

RELATED LINKS:

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Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.

Top 10 India Stocks To Buy For 2014

Top 10 India Stocks To Buy For 2014: Infosys Technologies Limited(INFY)

Infosys Ltd. provides information technology (IT) and consulting services worldwide. It offers IT services, such as application, architecture, independent validation and testing, information management, infrastructure, packaged application, SOA, systems integration, and knowledge services; product engineering services, manufacturing process and plant solutions, and product lifecycle management services; and consulting services in the areas of information and technology strategies, product innovation, next generation commerce, process excellence, and learning and complex change. The company also provides business process outsourcing solutions in the areas of business platforms, customer service outsourcing, finance and accounting, human resources outsourcing, legal services, sales and fulfillment, and sourcing and procurement outsourcing. In addition, it offers collaborative analytics solutions; digital consumer platform; Finacle universal banking solution; iProwe, a Web ac cessibility assessment product; mConnect, a real-time enterprise middleware; and research and analytical support services. Further, the company offers unified communications and collaboration solution that streamlines business processes between employees, customers, and suppliers; iTransform that helps healthcare organizations accelerate transition to new platforms; and supply chain visibility and collaboration product suite. It serves aerospace and defense, airlines, automotive, banking, capital markets, communication services, consumer packaged goods, manufacturing, education, energy, healthcare, high technology, hospitality and leisure, insurance, life sciences, logistics and distribution, publishing, resources, utilities, and retail industries. Infosys Ltd. has a strategic partnership with Alstom SA. The company was formerly known as Infosys Technologies Limited an! d changed its name to Infosys Ltd. on June 16, 2011. Infosys Ltd. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered i n Bengaluru, India.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Robert Martin]

  Infosys (INFY), Housing Development Finance and Reliance Industries LTD are the top three holdings, with weightings between 8% and 10.5%. Of course, just about any India ETF will have a heavy  allocation to Infosys and Reliance. However, INDA dedicates a lower percentage to energy than some of the alternatives, and instead leans more on IT and consumer spending.

• [By Aaron Smith]

  The government accused software developer Infosys (INFY) of using workers with B-1 visas, which only allow temporary entry into the U.S. for business purposes, to perform skilled labor jobs.

• [By Brian Stoffel]

  That helps explain why Accenture and IBM, the industry's two biggest players, have been able to gobble up so much market share. But there's a second tier of technology-consultants -- in terms of sheer size -- as well. That's where Cognizant, as well as its main competition -- Infosys (NYSE: INFY  ) and Wipro (NYSE: WIT  )  -- come in to play.

• [By Michael Flannelly]

  Shares of Infosys Ltd (INFY) spiked in pre-market trading on Friday after the software company posted second quarter earnings and revenues that beat Wall Street expectations.

  The India-based company posted a second quarter net income of $383 million, or 67 cents per share, down from $431 million, or 75 cents per share, posted in the same period last year.

  The company’s earnings per American Depository Share, or ADR, came in at 73 cents per share. According to analysts at Thomson Reuters, the company was expected to earn 70 cents per share in the quarter.

  Infosys’ quarterly revenues came in at $2.066 billion, up from the $1.797 billion posted in the same quarter last year. On average, analysts were expecting the company to see! $2.01 bi! llion in revenues.

  “During the quarter we witnessed broad-based volume growth, robust client additions, five large deal wins and increased sales momentum of our big data and cloud offerings. This growth is a result of our focus on execution, which helps our clients achieve their objectives.” said S. D. Shibulal, CEO and Managing Director.

  “We will continue with planned investments and initiatives to explore new avenues of growth. We remain watchful of the sustainability of improving global economic fundamentals”, he added.

  Looking ahead, the company sees revenues growing between 9% and 10% in fiscal 2014.

  Infosys shares were up $2.72, or 5.41%, during pre-market trading on Friday. The stock is up 18.87% year-to-date.

source from Top Stocks Blog:http://www.topstocksblog.com/top-10-india-stocks-to-buy-for-2014.html

Top 5 Mid Cap Stocks For 2014

Top 5 Mid Cap Stocks For 2014: Vocus Inc.(VOCS)

Vocus, Inc. provides cloud marketing software that enables businesses attract, engage, and retain customers in the United States, Europe, Asia, and Morocco. It offers a suite of software for social media marketing, search marketing, email marketing, and publicity. The company?s cloud marketing solutions include search marketing and news distribution solution that helps customers increase their online visibility and organic search engine rankings with press releases; and email marketing solution, which provides a method of keeping in touch with prospects and customers by using professional looking emails to send newsletters, special offers, and other useful content. Its cloud marketing solutions also comprise social media software solution that helps customers run social marketing campaigns, as well as monitor and analyze conversations across multiple social networks and other online Websites; and publicity solution, which offers media database, news monitoring, and analyt ics and publicity opportunities that help companies increase their media exposure, manage relationships with reporters, and monitor and analyze trends unfolding in the media. The company also provides professional services that consist of data migration, custom development, and training. Vocus, Inc. sells its products to the financial and insurance, technology, healthcare and pharmaceutical, and retail and consumer products industries, as well as government agencies, not-for-profit organizations, and educational institutions through its direct sales channels, indirect sales channels, and the Internet. Vocus, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Beltsville, Maryland.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Seth Jayson]

  Vocus (Nasdaq: VOCS  ) reported earnings on April 23. Here are the numbers you need to know.

  The 10-second takeaway
  For the quarte! r ended March 31 (Q1), Vocus met expectations on revenues and missed estimates on earnings per share.

• [By Rich Smith]

  In a separate statement, the company announced a small change in management, bringing in ex-Vocus (NASDAQ: VOCS  ) Chief Operating Officer William R. Wagner to become its own COO. In an SEC filing, LogMeIn noted that it will pay Wagner $400,000 in annual base salary, plus:

• [By Alex Planes]

  What: Shares of Vocus (NASDAQ: VOCS  ) have plunged 15% today after the company's forward guidance failed to impress the Street.

  So what: Vocus reported its earnings last evening, and both the $46.6 million top line and the $0.01 earnings per share result were better than Wall Street's consensus, which sought a $45.3 million revenue number and a $0.02 loss per share. However, third-quarter guidance of $46.5 million to $46.8 million on the top line is below the $47 million consensus, and a $0.03 to $0.04 EPS result is roughly in line with the $0.03 consensus. Additionally, the full fiscal year's guidance of $188 million to $189 million is roughly in line with the $188.2 million consensus.

source from Top Stocks Blog:http://www.topstocksblog.com/top-5-mid-cap-stocks-for-2014.html

Top 5 Solar Stocks For 2014

Top 5 Solar Stocks For 2014: Hanwha SolarOne Co. Ltd.(HSOL)

Hanwha Solarone Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of silicon ingots, silicon wafers, and PV cells and modules. The company also offers mono crystalline and multi crystalline silicon cells; and provides PV module processing services. It sells its products to solar power system integrators and distributors primarily in Germany, Italy, Australia, the United States, the Czech Republic, Spain, and China. The company was formerly known as Solarfun Power Holdings Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Hanwha SolarOne Co., Ltd. in December 2010. Hanwha Solarone Co., Ltd. was founded in 2004 and is based in Qidong, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Paul Ausick]

  Big Earnings Movers: Hanwha SolarOne Co. (NASDAQ: HSOL) is down 13.9% at $4.36. D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) is up 4.7% at $18.91 on good earnings boosted by land sales.

• [By Travis Hoium]

  News and notes
  Hanwha SolarOne (NASDAQ: HSOL  ) announced another $100 million in financing this week, this time a term loan from the Export-Import Bank of Korea.  

source from Top Stocks Blog:http://www.topstocksblog.com/top-5-solar-stocks-for-2014.html

Best China Companies To Buy For 2015

Best China Companies To Buy For 2015: Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd.(QIHU)

Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. provides Internet and mobile security products in the People's Republic of China. Its principal products include 360 Safe Guard, an Internet security product for Internet security and system optimization; 360 Anti-Virus, an anti-virus application to protect users? computers against trojan horses, viruses, worms, adware, and other forms of malware; and 360 Mobile Safe, a security program for the Google Android, Apple iOS, and Nokia Symbian smartphone operating systems. The company?s platform products comprise 360 Safe Browser, a Web browser; 360 Personal Start-up Page, a default homepage of 360 Safe Browser and a key access point to popular and preferred information and applications; 360 Application Store, a key access point to securely obtain and manage software and applications; and 360 Safebox, a solution that protects users against thefts of personal account information. It also provides online advertising services, including online marketi ng services and search referral services; and Internet value-added services comprising the operation of Web games developed by third-parties, remote technical support, and cloud-based services. The company was formerly known as Qihoo Technology Company Limited and changed its name to Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. in December 2010. Qihoo 360 Technology Co. was founded in 2005 and is based in Beijing, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By James Brumley]

  Competitor Qihoo 360 (QIHU) responded by doing the same on its mobile search results pages, but Baidu was clearly the first to the market on the front. BIDU is apt to out-innovate the mobile competition in the future as well, especially now that it’s gotten serious about making “91 Wireless” app marketplace into a more potent package of mobile-base! d tools and attractions.

• [By Lee Jackson]

  Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. (NYSE: QIHU) provides Internet and mobile security products in the People’s Republic of China. Its core Internet security products include 360 Safeguard, a solution for Internet security and system optimization; 360 Antivirus, an antivirus application that uses multiple scan engines to protect users’ computers against various kinds of malware; as well as 360 Mobile Safe, a security program for the Google Android, Apple iOS and Nokia Symbian smartphone operating systems. The Jefferies price target rises from $105 to $125, and the consensus target is $94.60. Those consensus numbers may go higher as the stock closed Friday at $99.25.

source from Top Stocks Blog:http://www.topstocksblog.com/best-china-companies-to-buy-for-2015.html

U.S. stock futures trade quiet, eye Ukraine

Stocks fell slightly at the open on Wall Street Wednesday after a report showed businesses added a lower-than-expected 139,000 jobs in February.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 0.1% and the Standard & Poor's 500 index dropped 0.1%. The Nasdaq composite index was flat.

Payroll processor ADP said Wednesday that businesses added 139,000 jobs last month, up from 127,000 in January. But January's figure was revised sharply lower from an original estimate of 175,000. Economists expected ADP to report 158,000 additional private-sector jobs, according to a consensus forecast

The ADP numbers cover only private businesses and often diverge from the government's more comprehensive report. The U.S. Department of Labor releases its own employment report Friday. Economists believe that the U.S. will report that employers generated 145,000 jobs in February.

Investors were also awaiting on a report on the service sector due Wednesday morning.

The drop comes a day the Standard & Poor's 500 index surged to a new record high on perceived cooling tensions in Ukraine.

UKRAINE: Russia's Putin appears to blink

Overseas, European markets were trading slightly lower. Germany's DAX index was down 0.2% and France's CAC 40 fell 0.1%. Britain's FTSE 100 index was down 0.5%.

Across Asia, regional traders are focusing on the start of the National People's Congress in China for signs of the direction of the Chinese economy and growth targets. The Chinese economy remains critical for region growth.

The Shanghai composite index fell 0.9% to 2, 053.08. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 gained 1.2% to 14, 897.63. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong dipped 0.3% to 22,579.78.

CHINA: Pledges to keep hold of 7.5% growth rate

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 added 1.53% to close at a record 1,873.91. The Dow rose 227.85 points, or 1.41%, to 16,395.88. The Nasdaq composite rose 74.67 points, or 1.75%, to 4,351.97.

TUESDAY: Stock markets bust past big round numbers

Contribu! ting: The Associated Press

Stocks fell slightly at the open on Wall Street Wednesday after a report showed businesses added a lower-than-expected 139,000 jobs in February.

Bullish Options Activity on Facebook Surges After Deal

The options market is a big fan of Facebook Inc.(FB)'s latest acquisition.

As the stock rises to a record, investors are pouring into bullish options on Facebook shares, with about 2.4 bullish options trading for every bearish one. The biggest bet Thursday is looking for a more than 20% gain over the next month.

“It's total insanity," said Henry Schwartz, president of options-data firm Trade Alert. "Option traders appear to like the deal for Whatsapp."

Late Wednesday Facebook said that it paid $19 billion to buy messaging company WhatsApp. Shares rose 2.3% to $69.93 on Thursday, recovering from an initial drop on the news. The deal is seen helping Facebook’s popularity with younger users, its international development and its mobile business.

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Facebook options trading volume was running at nearly three times its daily average Thursday as investors picked up bullish options. The most-actively traded contract was March $85 call options, which grant the right to buy shares at that price through March 21.

One block of 1,500 March $85 call options traded at midday for 24 cents. That investor needs Facebook shares to soar above $85.24 – or 22% — over the next month to profit. More than 62,000 of those call contracts had traded by midafternoon.

Other active contracts include March $75 and $80 call options. They need to see gains of more than 9.3% and 15%, respectively, to profit.

The amount of trading in options that require such a big move over a short period of time to profit shows "expectations are skewed," said Mr. Schwartz. "It is extraordinarily bullish to a point of concern," he said.

He likened the activity in Apple Inc.(AAPL) options in the summer of 2012, as the iPhone maker neared a peak it has yet to recover. Apple shares reached a high of about $702 in September 2012. On Thursday, the shares were trading for about $530.

Contrarian Fuel Lights Up Marvell

A mass exodus of bears could propel this stock higher, says analyst Andrea Kramer of Schaeffer Investment Research, regarding her Option Idea of the Week. Here, she assesses several contrarian sentiment and technical metrics.

Semiconductor maker Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) stepped into the earnings confessional after the close on February 20; the company blew past analysts' expectations, reporting earnings that more than doubled on a year-over-year basis.

The company attributed the solid quarter to strong demand from storage and networking businesses, and offered upbeat revenue guidance for the first quarter. "In the first quarter, we are expecting some revenue and unit growth for our 4G LTE mobile platform from multiple customers," said CEO Sehat Sutardja.

In the subsequent session, the shares of MRVL notched a two-year acme of $16.62, but ultimately finished the day lower. In fact, the equity pulled back to its ascending 40-day moving average, and has since bounced from this trendline—a move that's historically preceded strength in the shares.

In the seven other times MRVL has tested this trendline, the shares were positive 71% of the time five days later, and 86% of the time three weeks after the fact.

What's more, MRVL averages a 21-day return of 4.9% after touching its 40-day moving average, according to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Against this backdrop, now looks like an opportune time to gamble on continued upside for MRVL.

Despite Marvell's fundamental and technical prowess, the bullish bandwagon is far from crowded. Even after a post-earnings onslaught of upward price-target adjustments, the consensus 12-month price target for MRVL sits at $16.21, representing expected upside of just 5% from the stock's current perch.

In addition, more than half of the analysts following MRVL maintain "hold" or worse opinions. A flood of upgrades and/or additional price-target boosts could help usher the security even higher.

Elsewhere, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio sits at 1.57, indicating that puts handily outnumber calls among options with a shelf life of three months or less.

Even more telling, perhaps, this ratio stands higher than 91% of all other readings of the past year, implying that short-term options players are more put-heavy than usual right now.

An unwinding of bearish bets in the wake of MRVL's uptrend could add contrarian fuel to the equity's fire.

Options speculators interested in wagering on a continued rally for Marvell Technology might consider buying the in-the-money August 12 call, which was last asked at $3.80.

Subscribe to Schaeffer's Investment Research here…

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Winter chills Feb. job gains, says ADP

Businesses added 139,000 jobs in February, private payroll processor ADP said Wednesday, adding to concerns that the labor market continued to struggle last month amid extreme winter weather.

Economists expected ADP to report 158,000 additional private-sector jobs, according to a consensus forecast. They predict the Labor Department's more closely watched survey, due Friday, will show 150,000 job gains by businesses and federal, state and local governments.

ADP said that small businesses added 59,000 jobs; mid-size ones, 35,000 and large companies, 44,000.

Professional and business services led job gains, with 33,000. Trade, transportation and utilities added 31,000 and construction firms, 14,000. Manufacturers added 1,000 jobs.

"February was another soft month for the job market," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, which helps ADP compile the report. "Bad winter weather, especially in mid-month, weighed on payrolls. Job growth is expected to improve with warmer temperatures."

ADP's estimated payroll advances exceeded Labor's private-sector additions by an average of 92,000 in December and January, with cold and stormy weather holding down job gains in both months. Overall payroll additions in the Labor report, including government, slowed to 75,000 in December and 113,000 in January from an average pace of more than 200,000 from August through November.

Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. economist of High Frequency Economics, says ADP's survey is less sensitive to weather effects than Labor's tally. With many economists saying adverse weather also dampened payroll advances last month, the ADP report may again serve as a less reliable foreshadowing of Labor's market-moving figures.

Bad weather across much of the country also has hobbled manufacturing output, housing activity and retail sales recently. Some economists, however, say other forces, such as rising mortgage rates, may also be hampering an economy that's generally expected to accelerate this! year on rising household wealth and falling debt.

Diet Coke finally rolls out Slurpee at 7-Eleven

Diet Coke now wants you to slurp happiness.

The nation's top-selling diet soft drink brand, after 31 years, says it has finally cracked the code on how blend its low-cal formula into a Slurpee that tastes good. The Diet Coke Cherry frozen beverage rolls out exclusively Wednesday at 7-Eleven stores nationally under the Slurpee brand name. But the name will change in late May to Diet Coke Cherry FROST when sales of the frozen drink expand beyond 7-Eleven to other convenience chains and retailers that also sell frozen, carbonated drinks from machines.

With summer almost within tasting distance, beverage giants and convenience store retailers already are preparing for their busiest season. Even as diet and health-conscious consumers push for more sugarless drinks, it's been a challenging path for convenience chains to create low-cal frozen beverages that pass the taste test. 7-Eleven didn't nationally launch its Slurpee Lite platform until spring of 2012.

A 20-ounce Diet Coke Cherry Slurpee has 30 calories and 12 grams of carbs.

Back in the mid-2000's, 7-Eleven briefly sold a Diet Pepsi Slurpee, but that didn't last long. The first diet Slurpee it rolled out nationally was in May, 2012, with Slurpee Lite Fanta Sugar-Free Mango, says Margaret Chabris, a 7-Eleven, spokeswoman.

With more than 7,800 U.S. stores, 7-Eleven is a logical place for the the soft-drink kingpin's diet brand to enter the frozen beverage market. 7-Eleven, after all, is "a setting famous for delivering frozen perfection," says Stuart Kronauge, general manager of sparkling beverages at Coca-Cola North America.

To nudge consumers to try the new drink, 7-Eleven will offer consumers a free coupon from its 7-Eleven app, says Nancy Smith, 7-Eleven's senior vice president of fresh foods and proprietary beverages. Consumers also can text "DietCoke" to 711711 for a free, small Slurpee download.

7-Eleven also plans product sampling of the frozen beverage in at least five markets, says Chabris.

! Diet Coke plans to add other diet flavors to the frozen line later this spring, after the beverage expands to other retailers.